SALFORD, England (Interstat) — Fabio Borini’s 74th-minute goal gave Salford City a 1-0 victory over Walsall in a League Two match Tuesday at The Peninsula Stadium.

The decisive play began with substitute Aden Flint, who earned a yellow card earlier, providing an assist to defender Haji Mnoga. Mnoga then set up Borini for the game’s only score. Mnoga was also booked in the 56th minute.

The result defied the pre-match projection from Interstat’s game simulator, which had forecast a 1-1 draw. Their ELO rating system, however, gave Salford City a 67.6% probability to win.

With the win, Salford City begins its League Two campaign with a victory, while Walsall starts with a loss.