RIJEKA, Croatia (Interstat) — In a Europa League group stage match defying pregame projections, visiting AEK Larnaca secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Rijeka on Thursday at Stadion HNK Rijeka.

The match, a defensive struggle punctuated by a flurry of late disciplinary actions, delivered a significant upset. Statistical analysts at Interstat had heavily favored the Croatian side, giving Rijeka a 65.3 percent probability to win and simulating a 1-1 draw. Instead, AEK Larnaca’s organized defense and a single, decisive goal were enough to claim all three points on the road.

The game-winning sequence was a product of second-half substitutions, highlighting the tactical impact of the benches. The decisive play originated from AEK Larnaca substitute Saborit, who was credited with the assist on the lone goal. His entry into the match provided the creative spark that ultimately broke the deadlock in a contest where clear chances were at a premium for both sides.

The match was a physical affair from the outset, with AEK Larnaca’s Waldo receiving the first yellow card in the 13th minute. The first half concluded without a goal, setting the stage for a tense and increasingly fractious second period.

The intensity ratcheted up after halftime, leading to a series of bookings. AEK Larnaca’s Jérémie Gnali was shown a yellow card in the 45th minute, followed by teammate Giorgos Naoum in the 56th. The 60th minute proved particularly chaotic, with yellow cards issued to both AEK Larnaca’s Jorge Miramón and Rijeka’s Pere Pons in quick succession.

As the match entered stoppage time with the visitors clinging to their one-goal lead, emotions boiled over. A major incident in the third minute of added time resulted in simultaneous yellow cards for Rijeka substitute Hrvoje Miličević and AEK Larnaca’s goal-assist provider, Saborit. The disciplinary actions concluded in the sixth minute of stoppage time with a yellow card shown to Rijeka defender Ante Majstorović.

The victory gives AEK Larnaca a perfect start to their Europa League campaign, improving their record in the competition to one win and zero losses. For Rijeka, the loss marks a disappointing beginning, leaving them with a record of zero wins and one loss in the group stage. The records for both teams across all competitions now mirror their Europa League standing.

The result underscores the unpredictable nature of European football, where statistical models and home-field advantage are no guarantee of success. AEK Larnaca’s ability to secure a clean sheet victory on the road against a favored opponent provides a major boost to their continental aspirations, while Rijeka is left to analyze a frustrating offensive performance in their tournament opener.