BEIJING (Interstat) — The stage is set for a decisive Chinese FA Cup clash as Beijing Guoan hosts Henan FC at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025. The matchup presents a stark contrast in recent form, with Beijing riding a wave of offensive firepower and Henan seeking consistency.

Interstat’s projections heavily favor the home side, giving Beijing Guoan a 93.80 percent probability to win. Its game simulator predicts a 2-1 victory for Guoan.

The teams’ recent head-to-head history, however, adds intrigue. Their two meetings in the 2025 Chinese Super League season were split, with each side winning on the other’s home pitch. Henan secured a 2-0 victory on Sept. 12 in Zhengzhou, while Beijing claimed a 1-0 win in the capital on April 25.

Beijing Guoan enters the cup tie in devastating scoring form. In their most recent outing on Nov. 22, they demolished Meizhou Hakka 5-1. This followed a 4-0 away rout of Changchun Yatai on Nov. 1. Despite these highs, their form has been volatile, including a 6-0 thrashing by Shandong Taishan and a 4-2 loss to Qingdao Hainiu in late October.

Henan FC’s path has been more uneven. They come off a 1-1 home draw with second-division side Yunnan Yukun on Nov. 22. Their recent ledger includes a mixed bag: a 2-1 win over Cheng Rongcheng, a 2-2 draw with Zhejiang, and a 2-0 victory against Changchun Yatai in October, but also a 1-0 loss to Tianjin Jinmen Hu in September.

The venue in Suzhou provides a neutral setting for this cup fixture, though Beijing will be designated the home team. With a projected berth in the next round on the line, Beijing will look to leverage its potent attack. Henan, having already proven it can beat Guoan this season, will aim to replicate its disciplined September performance and defy the statistical odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. local time (1135 GMT).