OVIEDO, Spain (Interstat) — Real Valladolid II defeated Real Oviedo Vetusta 3-2 on Wednesday in a Segunda División RFEF match, overcoming a statistical projection that heavily favored the hosts.

The game at Estadio El Requexón saw the visitors twice rally from a deficit. Francisco Fumaça gave Oviedo Vetusta a lead in the 24th minute, but Manuel Pozo Guerrero equalized for Valladolid just before halftime. Pozo Guerrero struck again early in the second half for a 2-1 lead.

Alejandro Suárez Cardero pulled Oviedo Vetusta level in the 69th minute, but Francisco Rivera Cardoso netted the decisive goal for Valladolid in the 78th. The result defied Interstat’s pregame metrics, which gave Oviedo Vetusta a 71.5% probability to win.