GELEEN, Netherlands (Interstat) — In a match that defied statistical projections, Alphen Boys U21 secured a 2-1 victory over Fort Sittard U21 on Thursday in U21 Divisie 3 football.

The game, part of Week 5 of the Dutch youth competition, was played at Sportcomplex Graaf Huyn. The result improved Alphen Boys U21’s league record to two wins and no losses, while Fort Sittard U21 fell to no wins and one loss.

The outcome was a stark contrast to pregame forecasts. Interstat’s ELO rating system had given Fort Sittard U21 a 91.30 percent probability to win, while its game simulator had predicted a narrow 1-0 victory for the visiting side.

Alphen Boys U21 established an early lead, finding the net in just the fifth minute. The opening goal was scored by substitute Anny Kerim-Lindland, who made an immediate impact after entering the match.

The visitors doubled their advantage before the half-hour mark. In the 29th minute, another substitute, Anna Malmin, scored to give Alphen Boys U21 a commanding 2-0 lead. The assist on the play was credited to forward Laura Berry.

Fort Sittard U21 struggled to break down the Alphen defense for much of the contest. The match grew increasingly physical in the second half, with two yellow cards issued in quick succession. Alphen’s Berry received a caution in the 50th minute, followed by a yellow card for her teammate, substitute Emilie Guddal, just two minutes later.

The home side managed to pull a goal back late, injecting tension into the final stages. In the 79th minute, midfielder Olivia Chomczuk scored for Fort Sittard U21, cutting the deficit to 2-1. The assist was provided by Guddal.

Despite increased pressure from Fort Sittard in the closing minutes, Alphen Boys U21 held firm to preserve the one-goal margin and collect all three points. The victory provides a significant boost for Alphen following a heavy 9-0 defeat to Dordrecht U21 just two days prior in a different competition. Their season record across all tournaments now stands at two wins and one loss. Fort Sittard U21 remains without a win this season in all competitions, with an identical overall record of no wins and one loss.

Alphen Boys U21 will look to continue its positive league form in its next match, scheduled for later Thursday against Telstar U21. The quick turnaround presents a challenge, but the team will carry momentum from an upset victory that few analysts saw coming.