LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA, Spain (Interstat) — Malaga secured a 3-2 road victory over Las Palmas on Friday in a Week 31 Segunda División match at Estadio de Gran Canaria, defying pregame projections.

Interstat’s systems had heavily favored Las Palmas, giving the hosts a 92.2% win probability and projecting a 1-0 Malaga loss. Malaga forward Francisco Sol Ortiz opened the scoring in the 19th minute. Las Palmas answered with a goal from hometown midfielder Jonathan Viera Ramos in the 5th minute and took a 2-1 lead in the 75th when Francisco Jesús Crespo García scored off a Viera assist.

Substitute Alejandro Calvo Mata delivered the winner for Malaga in the 87th minute, assisted by goalkeeper Orlando Yáñez. The result improved Malaga’s league record to 1-1, while Las Palmas fell to 0-2.