WELLING, England (Interstat) — Adebayo Linford Kazim Azeez scored a first-half brace to power Welling United to a 3-2 victory over Havant & Waterlooville in an FA Trophy match on Wednesday that defied pregame projections.

The match at Park View Road saw the home side jump out to an early lead and withstand a second-half comeback attempt from the visitors, who entered the contest as heavy favorites according to statistical models.

Welling United seized control early. Azeez, a London-born attacker, opened the scoring in the 12th minute, finding the net to give his team the lead. He doubled the advantage just 13 minutes later, netting his second goal of the game in the 25th minute to put the home side in a commanding position.

Havant & Waterlooville, however, found a crucial response just before halftime. In the third minute of first-half stoppage time, Daniel Paul Wright of Southampton scored to cut the deficit to 2-1 and give his team momentum heading into the break.

The comeback effort was leveled in the 66th minute, though in an unfortunate fashion for the home side. Welling United defender Jamie Sendles-White, of Kingston upon Thames, Northern Ireland, scored an own goal, pulling Havant & Waterlooville even at 2-2.

The deadlock was broken for good 11 minutes later. Welling United’s Stefan Steve Payne, an attacker from London, scored the decisive goal in the 77th minute to secure the 3-2 result for the home team.

The outcome was a surprise based on pregame analytics. Interstat’s ELO system had given Havant & Waterlooville a 62.9 percent probability of winning, and its game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw.

With the result, Welling United improved its record in the FA Trophy to one win, one loss and one draw this season. Overall across all competitions, the team now stands at two wins, two losses and one draw.

Havant & Waterlooville’s FA Trophy record fell to one win, two losses and one draw. Their overall season record now sits at two wins, three losses and one draw.

The loss continues a recent slide for Havant & Waterlooville, which has now lost two of its last three matches, including a 1-0 defeat to Gloucester City on Oct. 25. Their last victory was a 4-2 win over Tiverton Town on Oct. 4.

Welling United, meanwhile, snapped a two-game winless streak with the victory. The team had suffered a 3-0 loss to Brentwood Town on Oct. 25 and a 1-0 loss to Slough Town on Sept. 16 prior to this result.