SAFFRON WALDEN, England (Interstat) — Saffron Walden is set to host Leighton Town in an ENG FA Vase fixture at Catons Lane on Sunday, with statistical models pointing toward a tightly contested match.

Interstat’s ELO rating system gives Saffron Walden a 64 percent probability of advancing, while its game simulator predicts a 2-2 draw, suggesting the potential for extra time to decide the outcome.

The home side will look to rebound from a 4-2 defeat to Athletic Newham on Sept. 13, their last recorded match. Their season-opening result was a scoreless draw at Harlow Town on Aug. 2.

Leighton Town arrives following a 1-1 draw at Stotfold on Wednesday. Their recent form has been inconsistent, highlighted by a pair of high-scoring losses to Walthamstow, including a 5-3 home defeat on Sept. 20. However, the club has also shown resilience with clean-sheet victories over Brightlingsea and Gorleston earlier in the campaign.

The FA Vase, a competition for clubs in the lower tiers of the English football pyramid, provides a platform for teams like Saffron Walden and Leighton Town to pursue national silverware. The statistical divergence between a projected Saffron Walden victory and a drawn result sets the stage for a compelling cup tie in Essex.