PERTH, Scotland (Interstat) — Saint Johnstone hosts Inverness Caledonian Thistle on Sunday in a pivotal first-leg Scottish Premiership playoff semifinal at McDiarmid Park, with the hosts riding a wave of momentum and statistical favoritism.

The match, scheduled for March 15, 2026, is the first of a two-legged tie that will determine which club advances one step closer to top-flight promotion. Saint Johnstone enters with strong recent form, having secured a 1-0 victory over Ross County on Saturday. That win extended their unbeaten run in domestic competition to five matches (3-2-0).

Inverness CT arrives following a dramatic 1-1 draw with Arbroath on Saturday, which they ultimately lost on penalties. Their league form has been mixed, with a scoreless draw against Partick Thistle preceding a 4-1 victory over the same opponent earlier this month.

The head-to-head history slightly favors Saint Johnstone, who earned a 1-0 away victory over Inverness CT when the sides last met in July 2025.

Statistical projections present a conflicting outlook. The Interstat game simulator predicts a 1-1 draw for the first leg. However, the same service’s ELO rating system calculates Saint Johnstone with a 71.2% probability to win the match.

Saint Johnstone’s path has been bolstered by a stout defense, recording three clean sheets in their last five outings. Inverness CT has shown offensive capability, scoring four goals in a match three times this season, but consistency has been an issue.

The return leg is scheduled for the following weekend, magnifying the importance of establishing an advantage at home for Saints or securing a crucial away result for Inverness.