DORKING, Surrey (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, Peterhead delivered a decisive 3-0 victory over Edinburgh City in a Scottish League One match Sunday at Meadowbank Stadium.

The result defied statistical models, which heavily favored the home side. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 1-1 draw, while its ELO system gave Edinburgh City an 85.6 percent probability to win. Instead, Peterhead secured a comprehensive away win, leaving the home supporters silenced.

The match, part of Week 7 of the League One calendar, remained a tense, goalless stalemate for over 80 minutes. The deadlock was finally broken in the 83rd minute by Edinburgh City midfielder Innes Murray. The Edinburgh native found the net to give his team a late lead.

Rather than consolidate, Peterhead responded with immediate force, leveling the match just five minutes later. In the 88th minute, another Edinburgh City midfielder, Daniel Handling, also hailing from Edinburgh, scored to bring the visitors even.

With the game dramatically poised at 1-1 and heading toward a draw that would have aligned with the simulator’s prediction, Peterhead found another gear in the dying moments. The visiting side scored twice in quick succession to seal the unexpected 3-0 triumph, capitalizing on the shifted momentum to overwhelm Edinburgh City in the final minutes.

The victory improves Peterhead’s League One record to 13 wins, 14 losses and seven draws this season. Across all competitions, they now stand at 15 wins, 18 losses and eight draws. The loss is a significant setback for Edinburgh City, which sees its league record move to two wins, two losses and four draws. Their overall mark across all tournaments now sits at 17 wins, 20 losses and 11 draws.

Peterhead entered the match with mixed recent form, including a 1-1 draw at Alloa Athletic just a day prior on Saturday. Their previous outing before that was a 3-2 victory at Falkirk on March 22. Edinburgh City came in following a 1-0 loss at Stirling Albion on Saturday.

Looking ahead, Edinburgh City will aim to rebound at home against Spartans FC on Saturday, April 4. Peterhead’s next League One fixture is scheduled for Saturday, April 11, when they travel to face East Fife.