MEDELLÍN, Colombia (Interstat) — Independiente Medellín and Tigres open their Copa Colombia series Saturday at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, a matchup that pits competing statistical projections against each other and sets the stage for a quick home-and-home rematch.

Kickoff is 8 p.m. local time.

Independiente Medellín enters on a one-game winning streak, having defeated Envigado 1-0 on Nov. 3, 2025. Tigres’ most recent result was a 1-0 victory Sept. 22, 2025, over Boca Jrs de Cali.

The aggregate series – the first leg Saturday, the second leg May 22 – means the draw projection carries extra weight: Interstat’s game simulator forecasts a 1-1 final score Saturday. The same data provider’s ELO system gives the home team a dominant 97.20 percent probability to win outright, a sharp divergence from the simulated draw.

Tigres last played a competitive match more than eight months ago, making their fitness and rhythm a question mark. The visitors have not won at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Copa Colombia play in the past five meetings, according to league records.

Independiente Medellín, by contrast, has been idle only since early November and finished its league campaign with momentum. The club is 4-0-1 in its past five home matches across all competitions, with three clean sheets.

Both teams face the same opponent next: the second leg Friday, May 22, at Tigres’ home venue. That quick turnaround – just six days between legs – places a premium on Saturday’s result. If Independiente Medellín builds a lead, Tigres must chase the aggregate score on short rest.

The winner of the Copa Colombia earns a berth in the Copa Libertadores.