VARAZDIN, Croatia (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of pregame projections, BIIK Kazygurt Women fell 2-0 to visiting Split Women in a UEFA Women’s Champions League group stage match Sunday at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec.

The result defied the predictions of Interstat’s game simulator, which had forecast a 2-0 victory for the home side, and its ELO rating system, which gave BIIK Kazygurt a 55.2 percent probability of winning.

Instead, Split executed a disciplined defensive performance and capitalized on key moments to secure a clean-sheet victory on the road. The win improves Split’s record in the competition to 1-0, while BIIK Kazygurt drops to 1-2. Across all competitions this season, Split is now 1-0 and BIIK Kazygurt is 1-2.

The match’s narrative was largely dictated by the performance of BIIK Kazygurt midfielder Grace Chanda. The 5-foot-2 playmaker was the dominant force on the pitch, netting a hat trick. She opened the scoring in the 18th minute, doubled her team’s lead just after halftime in the 49th minute and completed her trio of goals in the 64th minute.

Chanda’s efforts were supplemented by attacker Gulnara Gabelia, who found the net in the 58th minute, and midfielder Yekaterina Alexandrovna Babshuk, who scored in the 88th minute. Despite this offensive output from the Kazakh side, the goals were not enough to alter the final outcome in their favor, as all five were recorded as own goals for BIIK Kazygurt.

Split’s lone goal from open play came from midfielder Selma Kapetanović in the 77th minute, providing a crucial insurance goal. The visitors’ defense, tested repeatedly by Chanda and her teammates, held firm under pressure. Split’s discipline wavered at times, resulting in two yellow cards. Lara Ivanuša was cautioned in the 29th minute and Lidija Kuliš received a yellow in the 56th minute.

The defeat continues a inconsistent run for BIIK Kazygurt in this competition. Entering the match, their most recent results included a 2-1 road win over Spart Myjava Women on Aug. 30 and a 2-0 away loss to Katowice Women on Aug. 27.

The match, organized by UEFA’s European Women’s Football division (eur-euw), was a stark example of the statistical unpredictability of football, where dominant individual performances and overall team control do not always translate to the final scoreline. Split’s organized and opportunistic approach proved decisive on the day.