NANTWICH, England (Interstat) — Nantwich Town will host Banbury United in an FA Cup matchup Friday, May 1, 2026, at the Weaver Stadium, with the home side entering as a heavy favorite according to statistical projections.

The fifth-tier sides meet in the early rounds of England’s oldest knockout competition, with both teams looking to advance in a tournament known for its upsets. Nantwich Town, which plays in the Northern Premier League Premier Division, carries a 76 percent win probability based on Interstat’s ELO system. The same simulator projects a 2-1 final score in favor of the Dabbers.

Nantwich enters the match after a 3-0 loss at Silsden on Sept. 20, 2025, breaking a three-match winning streak. Prior to that defeat, the Dabbers defeated Trafford 3-1 at home on Sept. 13, followed by a 3-1 win at Ossett United on Sept. 6. Nantwich also posted a 2-0 victory over Avro on Sept. 2 and a 1-1 draw with the same side on Aug. 30, 2025. The team opened its campaign with a 1-0 win at Charnock Richard on Aug. 16.

Banbury United, a Southern League Premier Division Central club, arrives after a convincing 4-0 victory over Stowmarket Town on March 14, 2026 — its most recent result. That win broke a lengthy break in competitive fixtures for the Puritans. Earlier in the season, Banbury played to a 1-1 draw at St Albans City on Oct. 11, 2025, and posted a wild 6-4 victory at Chasetown on Sept. 16. The two sides met twice on Sept. 16 — first a 1-1 draw at Chasetown, followed by a 6-4 Banbury win later the same day in what appeared to be a doubleheader arrangement. On Sept. 13, Banbury played two goalless draws against Chasetown and Chasetown FC, listed as separate fixtures. The Puritans also recorded 1-0 wins at Mangotsfield United on Aug. 30, 2025, in two matches played that day.

Despite Banbury’s recent 4-0 form, Interstat’s projections strongly favor the home side. The ELO rating system, which accounts for strength of schedule and historical performance, gives Nantwich a significant edge.

Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. local time. The winner will advance to the next round of the FA Cup, with the draw expected later in the week.