MAINZ, Germany (Interstat) — In a stunning reversal of fortune, visiting VfB Stuttgart overcame an early deficit and defied overwhelming statistical projections to defeat Mainz 05 5-2 on Sunday in Bundesliga play at MEWA ARENA.

The match, part of Week 33 of Germany’s top-flight league, was expected to be a closely contested affair, with Interstat’s game simulator predicting a 1-1 draw. Furthermore, their ELO rating system gave Mainz 05 an 83.10 percent probability of victory. Those forecasts were rendered obsolete by a second-half offensive explosion from Stuttgart.

Mainz 05, the home side, opened the scoring in the 23rd minute through forward Marcus Ingvartsen, sending the home supporters into early celebrations. Stuttgart found an equalizer before halftime, however, as captain Wataru Endo netted a goal in the 41st minute to level the score at 1-1.

The match turned decisively in Stuttgart’s favor after the break. Striker Serhou Guirassy put the visitors ahead for the first time in the 64th minute, finishing an assist from Chris Führich. The duo combined again minutes later, this time with Führich converting a goal of his own in the 78th minute, assisted by Endo, to extend Stuttgart’s lead to 3-1.

Any lingering hopes of a Mainz comeback were extinguished in first-half stoppage time when Stuttgart’s Tanguy Coulibaly added a fifth goal, again assisted by Führich, to seal a comprehensive 5-2 victory. The scoreline was a stark contrast to the pregame projections and marked a significant offensive output for Stuttgart.

The physical match saw three yellow cards issued. Mainz’s Dominik Kohr was booked in the 61st minute, followed by Stuttgart’s Endo in the 73rd minute and Mainz defender Stefan Bell in the 75th minute.

The result improves Stuttgart’s Bundesliga record to 19 wins, 9 losses and 5 draws this season, solidifying a strong campaign. Their overall record across all competitions moves to 42 wins, 25 losses and 16 draws. For Mainz 05, the loss is a setback, moving their league record to 3 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws. Their overall mark stands at 5 wins, 3 losses and 11 draws.

Stuttgart entered the match following a mixed set of recent results, including a 1-0 league win over RB Leipzig on March 15 but also a 4-2 loss to Mainz 05’s reserve team just one day prior to this fixture. Mainz 05’s most recent outing was a 3-1 victory over Freiburg on March 1.

Looking ahead, Stuttgart faces a busy schedule across multiple competitions, with their next Bundesliga match a home fixture against Borussia Dortmund on April 4. Mainz 05’s next fixture was not listed in the provided information.