ARUA, Uganda (Interstat) — Onduparaka will look to solidify its continental qualification position when it hosts struggling Blacks Power in a Uganda Premier League clash Sunday at Ababet Green Light Stadium.

The Week 29 fixture, part of the CAF Confederation Cup qualification race, pits a favored home side against a visitor mired in a poor run of form. Statistical models heavily favor Onduparaka. Interstat’s game simulator projects a 1-0 victory for the hosts, while its ELO rating system gives Onduparaka a 70.60 percent probability of winning.

Onduparaka (12-8-8) enters the match unbeaten in its last outing, having fought to a 2-2 draw against Tooro United on Sept. 30. The Caterpillars will aim to leverage home support in Arua to secure three critical points as they chase a top-four finish.

Blacks Power (5-6-17) faces a steep challenge, arriving on the heels of a demoralizing 3-0 defeat to league leaders Vipers on March 19. That loss extended a difficult period for the club, which sits near the bottom of the 16-team table. The schedule offers little respite, as this match kicks off a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 days, all against different opponents. Immediately following this league fixture, Blacks Power is slated to face Express in a CAF Champions League match also dated Sunday, Feb. 1, highlighting a congested and demanding fixture list.

The logistical strain on Blacks Power could be a significant factor. Onduparaka, with a clearer focus and home advantage, is expected to control the tempo. Key battles will likely unfold in midfield, where Onduparaka will seek to exploit visitor fatigue.

A win for Onduparaka would apply pressure on rivals for Confederation Cup spots, while a positive result for Blacks Power would provide a crucial lift in its fight to avoid relegation.

Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. local time at the 10,000-seat Ababet Green Light Stadium. The match will be televised nationally on UBC Television.