MALATYA, Turkiye (Interstat) — Yeni Malatyaspor delivered a decisive 3-1 upset victory over Samsunspor in a TFF 1. Lig match Tuesday at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, defying overwhelming pregame projections.

The home side overcame a 91.5% win probability for Samsunspor, according to Interstat’s ELO system, which had projected a 1-0 road win.

Nermin Karić opened the scoring for Malatyaspor in the 26th minute. Luigi Cuppone doubled the lead just after halftime in the 52nd. Samsunspor’s Mattia Tirelli pulled one back in the 83rd, but substitute Alberto Cerri had already secured the result with Malatyaspor’s third goal in the 77th.

The match was a physical affair, producing five yellow cards. The result gives Yeni Malatyaspor a winning start to the league season, while Samsunspor begins with a loss.