AUSTIN, Texas (Interstat) — In a stunning offensive showcase that defied all pregame projections, Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns outlasted a furious fourth-quarter rally from Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores to secure a 34-31 victory in a nonconference thriller before a crowd of 102,338 at a rain-soaked DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

The game, a back-and-forth affair featuring nearly 700 yards of combined offense, was a far cry from the defensive struggle many anticipated. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 38-15 Texas win, and its ELO system gave the Longhorns a 91.8 percent probability of victory. Vanderbilt, however, entered as a 3.5-point favorite, and the teams’ combined 65 points sailed over the over/under line of 46.5.

Texas set the tone early, exploding for 17 points in the first quarter. The fireworks began just 11 seconds into the game. On the first play from scrimmage, Manning, the heralded quarterback from New Orleans, connected with Ryan Wingo on a short pass to the right. Wingo did the rest, breaking into the open field and sprinting 75 yards for a touchdown.

After a Mason Shipley field goal extended the lead, Manning engineered a meticulous 11-play, 95-yard drive, capping it with a 6-yard touchdown pass to running back CJ Baxter. The Longhorns’ offense appeared unstoppable, moving the ball at will against the Vanderbilt defense.

Vanderbilt, led by the dynamic play of quarterback Diego Pavia, settled in during the second quarter, putting together a drive that culminated in a 44-yard field goal from B. Taylor. The Commodores’ defense began to find some answers, but Texas responded with another scoring drive. Manning methodically moved the Longhorns down the field, and the drive ended with Quintrevion Wisner plunging into the end zone from 4 yards out to give Texas a 24-10 lead.

Just before the half, however, Pavia showcased the resilience that would define Vanderbilt’s afternoon. He led a two-minute drill with precision, eventually finding a new favorite target. With 11 seconds left on the clock, Pavia hit tight end Eli Stowers over the middle for an 18-yard touchdown strike, cutting the Texas lead to 24-17 at the intermission.

The third quarter belonged to the Longhorns as they re-established their two-score cushion. Manning continued his efficient day, finishing a drive with a 6-yard touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley V. Later, Shipley nailed a 37-yard field goal to push the Texas advantage to 34-17, seemingly putting the game out of reach as the fourth quarter began.

Vanderbilt, however, refused to capitulate. Pavia, who finished with 365 yards passing and 43 yards rushing, put on a heroic performance in the final period. He ignited the comeback with a 25-yard touchdown scramble, though the two-point conversion attempt failed, leaving the score at 34-23.

After a critical defensive stop that forced a missed 51-yard field goal attempt from Shipley, the Commodores struck again in breathtaking fashion. Pavia launched a deep ball down the right sideline to Stowers, who hauled it in for a 67-yard touchdown. A successful two-point conversion pass from Johnothan Sherrill to Stowers suddenly pulled Vanderbilt to within three points at 34-31 with 3:54 remaining.

The Commodores’ defense again held, forcing a Texas punt and giving Pavia one final chance with 2:56 left on the clock. Starting from his own 11-yard line, Pavia masterfully drove Vanderbilt down the field. He completed pass after pass, moving the chains and getting his team into the red zone in the final minute. With 33 seconds remaining, Pavia found Richie Hoskins for an 8-yard touchdown, tying the game and setting up a potential game-winning extra point.

The celebration was short-lived. A penalty flag for holding on Vanderbilt negated the score and pushed the Commodores back. Pavia’s final heaves into the end zone fell incomplete, and Texas was able to kneel out the clock to escape with the win.

Manning was brilliant for Texas, completing 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns, adding 4 yards on the ground. Wingo was his top deep threat, catching two passes for 89 yards and the game-opening score. Mosley V was a reliable target with seven catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.

For Vanderbilt, Pavia’s stat line of 27-of-38 for 365 yards and three touchdowns through the air, plus his 43 rushing yards and another score on the ground, was monumental. Stowers, a quarterback by trade playing tight end, was his primary weapon, hauling in seven passes for 146 yards and two touchdowns in a breakout performance.

Defensively, Derek Williams Jr. led Texas with eight tackles, while the pass rush combo of Colin Simmons, Ethan Burke, Trey Moore, and Anthony Hill Jr. combined for six sacks and multiple quarterback hurries, consistently pressuring Pavia. For Vanderbilt, Langston Patterson and Marlen Sewell were everywhere, with Patterson recording seven tackles and two quarterback hurries and Sewell notching eight tackles and a key pass breakup.

With the win, Texas improves to 7-2 on the season and looks ahead to a massive road test at Georgia on Nov. 15. Vanderbilt, also now 7-2, will return home to host Auburn on Nov. 8, its hopes for a special season still very much alive despite the heartbreaking defeat.