MONTGOMERY, Ala. (Interstat) — South Alabama faces Georgia State in an elimination game Thursday in the Sun Belt Conference Baseball Championship at Montgomery Riverwalk Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for a time to be determined, with the forecast calling for clear skies.

The No. 4-seeded Jaguars (33-21) enter as the hotter team, coming off a series win over Arkansas State and holding a decisive edge in the standings. The No. 8-seeded Panthers (27-29) limp into the tournament having dropped 10 of their last 14 games, including a 7-6 loss at Southern Mississippi on Wednesday.

Georgia State’s pitching staff will lean heavily on right-hander Will Bartkoski, a starter whose recent performances have been wildly inconsistent. Bartkoski tossed a complete-game, one-hit shutout with eight strikeouts in a 5-1 win at Georgia Southern on May 8, allowing just one unearned run over nine innings. But in his most recent outing Wednesday, he lasted six innings, gave up four earned runs on zero hits — an unusual line — and struck out three in a loss. Over his previous four appearances, Bartkoski has allowed 10 earned runs in 13⅓ innings and sports a 0-3 record in that stretch.

For South Alabama, the bullpen figures to be a strength. Right-hander Jaxon Shineflew has been effective in relief, posting a 1.04 ERA over his last four outings, striking out 14 in 9⅔ innings. He threw five innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts in a 7-2 win over Arkansas State on May 15. Shineflew has not allowed an earned run in three of his last four appearances.

Third baseman/designated hitter Robert Miranda powered the Jaguars in their last game, a 6-2 win over Arkansas State on May 16, going 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBIs. Left-hander Jacob Haley (3⅓ innings, two hits, no earned runs, four strikeouts) and right-hander Tyler Smith (3⅔ innings, three hits, one earned run, three strikeouts) combined for seven strong innings of relief in that game.

Georgia State’s offense was paced in Wednesday’s loss by center fielder John Beverley, who went 3-for-5 with two RBIs. Right-hander Jacob Crews threw ⅔ of a scoreless inning.

The Panthers’ path to the championship is narrow. They have lost four of their last five games and have not won a series since sweeping three games against Georgia Southern on May 8-9. South Alabama, by contrast, has won six of its last eight.

Interstat’s game simulator projects a 6-5 victory for South Alabama, leaning on the Jaguars’ superior record and recent form. For the Panthers to advance, Bartkoski must rediscover the command that produced his gem at Georgia Southern, while a South Alabama bullpen led by Shineflew and the arms of Haley and Smith appears poised to close the door.