WACO, Texas (Interstat) — The Baylor Bears erupted for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, turning a tight contest into a decisive 11-4 victory over the Texas Christian Horned Frogs in the opener of a Big 12 Conference series at Baylor Ballpark on Friday night.

The game, a matchup of teams with identical 22-15 overall records entering the night, defied pregame projections that heavily favored Texas Christian. Interstat’s game simulator had projected a 7-6 TCU win, and its ELO system gave the Horned Frogs a 64.7% probability of victory. Instead, Baylor’s late offensive explosion secured the win.

Texas Christian built an early 4-0 lead against Baylor starter Lucas Davenport. The Horned Frogs scratched across a run in the second inning when Brady Dallimore doubled and later scored on a Nolan Traeger groundout. They added two more in the fourth on a solo home run by Karson Franco and an RBI groundout from Elijah Bell that scored Dallimore, who had tripled.

Davenport settled in after the early trouble, ultimately working seven complete innings. He allowed seven hits and four runs, all earned, while striking out five to earn the win. His ability to navigate through the TCU lineup deep into the game kept Baylor within striking distance.

Baylor began chipping away at the deficit in the fifth inning. Trailing 4-1, the Bears strung together three runs on four hits to tie the game. Key hits included an RBI single from shortstop Travis Sanders and a run-scoring single from first baseman Tyce Armstrong. The rally chased TCU starter Trever Baumler, who was charged with four earned runs on four hits over four-plus innings.

The Bears took their first lead in the sixth. With two on and one out, Sanders delivered another clutch single to right field, scoring Hunter Johnson to make it 5-4. TCU reliever Nate Stern entered and escaped further damage with a pair of strikeouts.

TCU catcher Nolan Traeger answered in the top of the seventh, launching his second home run of the season to deep left-center field to knot the score at 5-5.

The game remained tied until the fateful bottom of the eighth. The inning began explosively for Baylor as leadoff hitter Wesley Bo launched his first homer of the season to right field, breaking the tie. After a single and a stolen base by Mike Janusek, Armstrong delivered his third hit of the night, an RBI single, to extend the lead to 8-5.

The floodgates then opened following a critical error. With a runner on, Baylor’s Hunter Clements laid down a sacrifice bunt. TCU reliever Cade Durnin fielded it but threw wildly past first base, allowing two more runs to score and Clements to reach second. Clements later scored on a groundout by Cole Kennett, capping the seven-run outburst and putting the game out of reach at 11-5.

Baylor’s bullpen was dominant in securing the win. After Davenport departed, RJ Ruais recorded one out before giving way to Caleb Bunch. Bunch was overpowering, striking out all five batters he faced over 1 2/3 perfect innings to slam the door.

Sanders and Armstrong led Baylor’s 12-hit attack. Sanders went 3 for 5 with two RBIs and two runs scored, while Armstrong was 3 for 4 with two RBIs and two runs. For TCU, Dallimore had two of the team’s seven hits, finishing 2 for 4 with two runs scored.

The most important part of the game was Baylor’s seven-run eighth inning, which transformed a one-run nail-biter into a lopsided final. The frame featured a go-ahead homer, timely hitting, and a pivotal defensive mistake by TCU that Baylor capitalized on fully, sending 12 men to the plate to break the game open.

The Bears and Horned Frogs continue their three-game series Saturday afternoon at Baylor Ballpark.