CINCINNATI (Interstat) — In a dramatic crosstown rivalry clash that defied pregame projections, the Xavier Musketeers rallied with two runs in the ninth inning to stun the Cincinnati Bearcats 4-3 on Tuesday evening at Marge Schott Stadium.

The game, which began in the afternoon and concluded under the lights, saw the Musketeers (8-18) overcome a three-run deficit against a Bearcats squad (19-8) that entered with significant momentum and a dominant statistical forecast. Interstat’s game simulator had projected an 8-2 Cincinnati victory, with the Bearcats given a 58% probability to win.

Cincinnati established an early lead, plating a run in the first inning on an RBI single by Tommy Infelise. The advantage grew to 3-0 in the third when first baseman Quinton Coats launched a solo home run to center field. The Bearcats’ offense collected 11 hits but repeatedly stranded runners, going 2 for 13 with men in scoring position.

Xavier’s comeback was ignited in the seventh inning by Jorge Valdes. After Matt Canterberry led off with a single, Valdes crushed a two-run homer to left field off reliever Carson Dieruf, cutting the deficit to 3-2 and injecting life into the Musketeers’ dugout.

Cincinnati appeared to secure an insurance run in the top of the ninth. With two outs, Alec Natili doubled down the left field line to score Lauden Brooks, who had singled, restoring a two-run cushion at 4-2. Sam Hoeft entered for Xavier and escaped further damage.

The bottom of the ninth delivered the decisive and most important sequence of the game. Facing Bearcats reliever Christian Pineiro, Xavier third baseman Luke Hammond led off by demolishing a game-tying solo home run to left field, knotting the score at 4-4. After a strikeout and a groundout, the rally continued. Carter Burdette doubled down the left field line. Hudson Johnson was then intentionally walked to set up a force play, bringing Isaac Fitz to the plate.

Fitz, who had walked and singled earlier, delivered the final blow, lacing a single to left field. Burdette raced home from second, sliding in safely to complete the walk-off victory and trigger a celebration at home plate.

The late offensive heroics overshadowed brilliant work from both bullpens. Cincinnati relievers Dillon Schueler, Adam Buczkowski, Logan Knight and Hudson Johnson combined for 5 2/3 perfect innings, striking out nine consecutive batters at one point. For Xavier, Michael Murphy provided 2 2/3 scoreless innings in relief, and Jake Hooker added two more before Hoeft recorded the final out of the ninth to earn the win.

The victory snaps a three-game skid for Xavier as they prepare to open Big East play at Connecticut this weekend. Cincinnati, which had won eight of its last ten, will look to rebound as it hosts Kansas for a three-game series starting Friday.