Cal State Bakersfield at UC Irvine
CSU BAKERSFIELD AT UC IRVINE Site: Anteater Ballpark, Irvine Time: 7 p.m. Weather: 69 degrees, cloudy Records: Cal State Bakersfield 21-30; UC Irvine 24-24 Projection: Interstat sim: UC Irvine 6, Cal State Bakersfield 5. ELO: UC Irvine 85% win probability.
The series finale between Big West rivals Saturday afternoon pits Cal State Bakersfield against UC Irvine at Anteater Ballpark, with the Anteaters looking to secure the series win after splitting the first two games.
UC Irvine (24-24) took the opener Thursday 6-3, powered by a dominant start from right-hander Trevor Hansen, who struck out 10 over 5 1/3 innings while allowing three earned runs. The Anteaters evened the series after dropping Friday’s contest 1-0. Hansen has been reliable down the stretch, tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball in a win over UC Riverside on May 8 and logging a complete-game effort against Cal Poly on May 1 in which he struck out four across six innings.
Cal State Bakersfield (21-30) enters with a 3-7 record in its last 10 games and has struggled against UC Irvine this week. The Roadrunners’ offense has managed just six runs in the first two games of the series, but right-hander Saul Bolivar could provide a spark from the mound. In his most recent appearance (Interstat) — in the series opener Thursday (Interstat) — the junior went 3 1/3 scoreless innings, scattering no hits and striking out one. Bolivar has posted three scoreless outings in his last five appearances, including a three-inning, zero-hit performance at UC Riverside on April 25.
The weather forecast calls for overcast skies with temperatures settling around 69 degrees at first pitch. Both teams sit near the middle of the Big West standings, but UC Irvine holds the advantage in recent form, having won four of its last six.
For the Roadrunners, limiting Hansen’s effectiveness early will be critical. UC Irvine’s bullpen, anchored by Ricky Ojeda (Interstat) — who allowed no earned runs over 3 2/3 innings of relief Thursday (Interstat) — has been sharp.
The ELO projection gives the Anteaters an 85 percent probability to win, while the Interstat simulator predicts a one-run ballgame, 6-5 in favor of UC Irvine.